Demographic shifts

Europe’s population is aging, and population growth is weak. Meanwhile, an ever higher percentage of people live in urban areas, and rural regions face depopulation. What will these changes mean for our transport sector and its workers?

Demographic change is one of the four megatrends examined in our TRENDS research project. While the global population is still growing rapidly, in European countries population growth is already weak or even negative. The following elements are relevant in Europe with a potential impact on transport and transport workers:

• Reduced population growth in Europe with differences in individual countries, contrary to strong growth worldwide and in particular in Africa and Asia; this creates challenges for the traditional organisation of social security systems in Europe
• Population growth in some countries in Europe will be largely based on migration including brain-drain (migration of young well educated people) within Europe and from outside Europe.
• An aging population in Europe with different transport needs and transport patterns.
• On-going urbanisation and depopulation of rural areas.
• An aging work force, especially in the transport sector.

These changes will have a profound effect on the transport sector, especially in regions or industries that face reduced demand. Trade unions need to ensure that sectors with strong demand remain attractive to young workers, and that women and migrants can be well integrated into the workforce. Workers in regions and sectors experiencing a fall in demand must be appropriately supported, as must older workers and passengers.