The Green Deal at a Crossroads: Urgent Action Needed to Achieve Modal Shift
A recent ITF/OECD study has revealed a troubling lack of progress in the modal shift from road to rail across Europe—a key objective of the European Green Deal. The Green Deal’s aim is to double rail freight transport by 2050 and increase waterborne transport by 25% by 2030. Despite these ambitious goals of the European Union, the data shows that road transport continues to dominate, while rail struggles to gain traction.
This stagnation, and in some cases regression, underscores the urgent need for stronger political commitment, substantial investment, and robust policy enforcement to realise the Green Deal’s vision of a sustainable transport system. In other words, the rail sector remains underdeveloped while road transport is kept artificially cheap through extensive wage and social dumping practices that circumvent regulations.
The Green Deal represents a bold commitment to sustainability, aiming to transform the continent’s economy and infrastructure to meet climate targets. Central to this vision is the modal shift from road to rail, which is essential for reducing carbon emissions, alleviating infrastructure pressures, and promoting social and economic sustainability. However, the latest data reveals that this shift is not happening at the necessary pace, raising concerns about the EU’s ability to meet the Green Deal goals.
A European Environmental Agency (EEA) analysis highlights the decline in overall share of rail and waterborne freight from 27% in 2012 to 22% in 2022. The downward trend in share below is clear before and after covid.
Figure 1. Share of inland waterways and rail freight in total inland freight transport in the EU-27 (source EEA)
When you examine on a country by country basis you can see a decline in share of inland freight transport in all but 5 member states. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused major disruption to rail freight, this can help explain the major reductions in the Baltic States and other Eastern European countries.
Figure 2: Changes in the share of inland waterways and trains in freight transport across European countries between 2010 and 2022 (source EEA)
Overall, 24 of the 27 countries in the ITF/OECD study saw a relative increase in road transport from 2013 to 2023. For the reasons mentioned above, road transport remains overwhelmingly dominant and is increasing the overall share of freight transport with only marginal changes in modal shares since the Green Deal was introduced in 2019 . Even in nations with relatively developed and dense rail networks, such as Germany and Austria, road transport has continued to increase share of freight transport .
This persistent reliance on road freight highlights systemic challenges, including underinvestment in rail infrastructure and a lack of incentives for businesses to choose more sustainable transport options. Without significant intervention, the Green Deal’s objectives will remain out of reach.
Table 1: Shifting modes: 10-year snapshot of how goods are moved by country
Freight transport share by mode, 2013 and 2023 (source: ITF/OECD)
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted passenger transport patterns and the recovery in passenger numbers has been uneven. Rail transport, which suffered severe declines during the pandemic, has been slow to rebound. By 2023, only 15 out of 34 countries had rail passenger numbers above 2019 levels. In contrast, road transport—particularly private car use—has recovered more quickly, with half of the analysed countries this has increased well above pre-pandemic levels.
This disparity underscores the need for greater investment in public transport, which is essential for reducing emissions and providing affordable, accessible transport for all citizens. The slow recovery of rail passenger transport is a missed opportunity to accelerate the modal shift and demonstrate the benefits of sustainable public transport.
The European Transport Federation (ETF) has outlined a comprehensive vision for achieving a sustainable, multi-modal transport system. Our policy recommendations provide a clear roadmap for realizing the Green Deal’s objectives:
The data from 2013 to 2023 makes it clear that the modal shift is nowhere near the necessary pace. While some countries have made modest progress, the overall trend is one of stagnation and missed opportunities. Achieving the Green Deal’s objectives will require stronger political will, substantial investment, and decisive action.
Governments must prioritize investment in rail and public transport infrastructure, ensuring that sustainable options are accessible and affordable for all. Regulatory frameworks must be enforced to encourage the modal shift, and fair pricing mechanisms must be implemented to reflect the true costs of road transport. Collaboration between stakeholders—governments, businesses, and civil society—is essential to drive this transformation.
The Green Deal represents a historic opportunity to build a sustainable, equitable, and resilient transport system. However, the latest data shows that we are falling well short of its objectives. The persistent dominance of road transport and the slow progress of rail transport highlight the urgent need for action. By investing in rail and public transport, enforcing fair competition, and prioritizing sustainability, we can accelerate the modal shift and deliver on the Green Deal. The time to act is now—our climate, our economy, and our future depend on it.